A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
